Plain decisions first. Inspectable math when you want it.
At a glance
Prize counts
Copied from a checked Texas report.
Share still reported unclaimed
Unclaimed counts divided by the official count listed for the same prize levels.
Ticket-pool estimate
Tally presents a ScratchSignal estimate built from official production facts and the latest reported prize counts.
Live ticket availability
Texas does not publish a live unsold-ticket count or store inventory.
The no-math version
- Set your limit and choose a strategy.Pick a ticket-price ceiling, then focus on the top prize, the biggest reported prize, or how many prize levels remain represented.
- Rule out obvious avoids.If Texas reports zero top prizes unclaimed, avoid that game when you are playing for the top prize. If the biggest reported prize is below your target, move on.
- Compare what remains.Use the complete prize list, report date, and recent checked changes. A game that passes the screen is worth comparing, not proof that a prize is unsold or the ticket is better.
- Recheck before purchase.A later Texas report can change the screen. A future change alert could bring you back when that happens. Today the form accepts launch-notice requests only.
The product promise: ScratchSignal turns a large Texas report and hard math into a simple strategy screen you can check. It does not turn missing ticket-supply facts into current odds or tell you that a random ticket will win.
Official prize reports
ScratchSignal checks the TDLR Lottery and Charitable Bingo Division's official scratch-off file, its date, and every prize row before using it. We show when Texas dated the report and when ScratchSignal checked it. If the newest report is delayed, the last verified numbers stay visible with a Data delayed tag and the date they are good through. “Unclaimed” does not mean a prize is still available at retail; a winning ticket may already have been sold but not claimed.
Prize-count comparison, not current odds
For each prize tier, retention = reported unclaimed prizes ÷ prizes originally listed in the official prize structure. The top-tier retention gap is top-tier retention minus retention for the prize amount exactly equal to the ticket price. A positive gap means only that, as of the source date, the top-prize tier's reported-unclaimed share is higher by that many percentage points than the exact ticket-price prize tier's share. If a game has no exact ticket-price tier, ScratchSignal marks that scope not applicable and does not calculate the comparison.
Top-prize report
The official reported-unclaimed top-prize count is shown before its share of the top-prize count listed in the official prize structure.
Prize levels still represented
Prize levels with at least one prize reported unclaimed, shown against all prize levels only when every level has a complete reported count. This counts prize categories, not tickets or prize dollars.
All-prize count share
Sum of reported-unclaimed prize counts ÷ sum of counts listed across every prize tier, calculated only when every tier in that scope has a complete reported count. Prize dollars are not weighted.
Above-ticket-price count share
The same count-share calculation limited to prize amounts greater than one ticket's price. The exact ticket-price tier is excluded.
Highest prize still reported unclaimed
The largest prize amount with a complete reported-unclaimed count above zero. It can screen a stated prize goal, but does not establish that a winning ticket is unsold or available.
Position by top-prize share among same-price games
One named complete count comparison among board games with the exact same ticket price. Equal values share a place; incomplete values are excluded. It is not an overall score.
What it cannot show: the denominator contains listed prizes only and excludes losing tickets, so these indicators cannot show current next-ticket odds, current expected value, profit probability, unsold-ticket inventory, or whether an unclaimed prize is already on a sold ticket. Partial or missing counts are never estimated.
How the strategy screen supports a decision
Set a ticket-price limit and choose the prize result you care about. ScratchSignal uses one dated report to show what to check first and what to avoid. For example, a game with zero top prizes reported unclaimed is an obvious avoid for a top-prize strategy as of that report. Passing the screen means only that the reported facts meet your criteria. It does not mean the game is a better bet, that ScratchSignal recommends it, or that a qualifying prize is still on an unsold ticket.
Calculation and interpretation details
ScratchSignal does not label this gap as improved odds. The official CSV does not report the number of unsold tickets, ticket distribution, or whether an unclaimed prize is already on a sold ticket. Those missing values prevent calculation of current next-ticket odds, current expected value, or a probability of winning or profiting. The official Texas game details describe published overall odds as based on the end-of-production prize structure and warn that actual prize counts may vary with manufacturing, testing, distribution, sales, and claims. ScratchSignal does not recalculate or replace those official overall odds.
If ScratchSignal compares two reports we checked, it may describe the measure only as widening or narrowing: “Between [earlier date] and [later date], the retention gap widened by X percentage points.” That is a change in the count comparison, not evidence that actual odds, likelihood of profit, or the chance on the next ticket changed. The current public change list does not calculate a retention-gap history series.
How to read a current comparison: “As of the source date, the top-prize tier retained 20 percentage points more of its originally listed prizes than the exact ticket-price tier” is a statement about reported prize-tier shares. “Your odds are 20% better” is not supported by this source and is not a ScratchSignal claim.
How Tally's modeled ticket-pool estimate works
Tally presents ScratchSignal's proprietary model. The public method explains the verified inputs, validation checks, central assumption, and limits without publishing proprietary implementation details or internal version labels. For an eligible game, ScratchSignal reads the approximate number of tickets produced and the published overall odds from that game's official Texas detail page. The starting prize structure must independently agree with the published overall odds before Tally shows an estimate. This is an input check, not proof that the estimate is accurate today. The Texas game page must have been checked within the past 31 days.
- Find the reported-unclaimed share of winning prizes.Divide all winning prizes reported unclaimed by all winning prizes originally listed.
- Estimate a modeled ticket pool.Apply that same share to the approximate number of tickets produced.
- Choose a prize goal.Divide the modeled ticket pool by the prizes reported unclaimed that meet the goal. We show the result as an estimated 1 in X tickets for that outcome.
Official starting facts: approximate production, published overall odds, and the original prize structureCurrent reported facts: every complete prize-tier count reported unclaimedModeled comparison: an estimated pool and ticket frequency for the selected outcomeThe assumption does the heavy lifting. Texas does not publish the live unsold-ticket pool or tell us whether an unclaimed prize is already on a sold ticket. The model assumes winning and losing tickets leave the market at the same rate. It also treats unclaimed winners as though they remain in the pool. Claim delays, distribution, returns, and manufacturing changes can make the estimate wrong. The current inputs do not support a trustworthy range, so every result is labeled “Limited evidence.”
The model estimate for winning any listed prize stays close to the published overall odds because of how the formula works. That group includes prizes worth less than the ticket price. The model is more useful when you choose a specific prize or prize group whose reported counts changed at a different rate. The best model result means only the most favorable estimated ticket frequency for the selected outcome among complete games at the exact same ticket price and report date, calculated with the same proprietary method. It is not the best current odds, the best ticket, a prediction, or a recommendation.
Inspect a current result. Open the current decision board, choose the outcome you care about, and view a modeled result built from that game's checked Texas report and official detail page.
How Tally builds a Stock Signal
Tally's 1 to 99 Stock Signal is an uncalibrated ordering score, not a probability or confidence percentage. ScratchSignal uses it only to order retailers returned for the same game and ZIP code. It has not been calibrated or backtested as a chance of inventory or future availability.
Inputs, decay, and evidence thresholds
The official-sales starting score uses up to 120 days of completed monthly records for the selected game and up to one year of other same-price games at the same retailer from the Texas Lottery Sales by Fiscal Month/Year, Game and Retailer dataset. ScratchSignal evaluates recency, repeated positive-sales months, relative current-game volume, and comparable same-price history. Exact feature weights are proprietary. Missing comparable history is labeled Data delayed and does not become a zero.
When every Texas prize-tier count is complete, Tally then uses the share of listed winning prizes still reported unclaimed as a game-level depletion proxy. This can adjust the starting score, but it is not an estimated count of unsold tickets. If the prize table is incomplete, the official-sales score stays in place and the depletion update is labeled Data delayed.
Only each pseudonymous reporter's freshest accepted retailer report is used. Signed-in reports are accepted immediately. Anonymous reports begin pending and are accepted only after at least three distinct guest identifiers corroborate the same retailer and game over at least 30 minutes; pending reports never affect the order. A “bought one” report loses half its weight after 12 hours, a display sighting after 8 hours, and an empty-slot report after 2 hours. A Player Boost requires at least four recent accepted reporters across 45 minutes, including two purchase reports. A Player Warning requires at least four recent accepted empty-slot reports across 45 minutes. Reporting is rate-limited, each tap must follow a token-bound store search, and only accepted records can affect the order. Account or guest identifiers are not proof of distinct people, and meeting a flag threshold does not establish store inventory. Official monthly sales are historical, unaudited, may be adjusted, and are not current inventory.
When two recent accepted reporters say the same thing, the store check can say it has support from more than one player. That is still not a Player Boost and does not establish inventory. No recent accepted player report means the store status is unknown.
How Tally reads historical prize changes
Signal Pro can summarize a game only after ScratchSignal has at least three verified official reports spanning seven or more days. Tally counts how much the official total reported-unclaimed prize count changed between the first and latest report and shows the average observed change per 30 days. If the series is incomplete, malformed, or revised upward, no trend number appears.
This is a monitor input, not an odds input. It can help decide when an official report deserves another look. It does not estimate sales, inventory, tickets remaining, purchase odds, or a future result, and it does not change the ticket-pool model until a separate backtest shows that doing so is statistically justified.
Public information and attribution
Public information and attribution
Texas Government Code § 2054.126 and the published DIR and TDLR website policies describe conditions for using public state-agency information. ScratchSignal identifies the agency and exact source, records source and retrieval dates, presents the data independently without implying endorsement, and uses small official ticket-front thumbnails only to help identify a game. Ticket art does not affect any ranking or calculation, and official logos are not used as ScratchSignal branding. See Sources and Attribution for the exact source links, image notice, and latest image-set date.
Before another state is connected
Our published game reports cover Texas. A state listed as not connected has no game report or paid state comparison here. Texas source-use conditions do not extend to another lottery.
Automated collection for states awaiting source permission is paused. Before any future routine collection or publication for another state, we will review its terms and obtain any required authorization. Earlier local source research does not establish permission to automate or republish it. A permitted feed still needs checks for every current game and prize tier, native game identifiers, report dates, claim deadlines, revisions, and missing records. An unavailable count or deadline stays unknown. We do not combine reprints just because their names match.
A source date describes the lottery's report; a retrieval time describes our check. On a delayed or invalid update, the last verified evidence retains its original dates and receives a stale label. Published prize counts are not unsold-ticket counts, and unclaimed prizes can be on tickets already sold. No exact current odds are calculated from unclaimed counts alone.
Independent calculations are labeled separately from official facts. A source's official records and game rules control if there is a discrepancy. See state data and permission for the publication policy and report a correction.
Limits
ScratchSignal shares information, explanations, calculations, and comparisons for educational and entertainment purposes. An unclaimed prize may be on an unsold ticket or on a sold ticket that has not yet been claimed. ScratchSignal cannot identify winning tickets, predict random outcomes, locate a prize, or verify a retailer's current inventory. The optional ticket-pool output is an estimate that depends on a strong assumption. It is not an authoritative calculation of live odds or inventory. Incomplete inputs are labeled Data delayed, and no value is invented. Percentages are truncated to one decimal for display; official integer counts control. All outputs, including store signals, are independent comparisons, not betting advice or official Texas analysis.