Why reported prizes cannot calculate current scratch-off odds
Direct answer: ScratchSignal cannot know official current next-ticket odds. The Texas prize report does not publish unsold-ticket counts or say which reported-unclaimed prizes are on unsold tickets.
Prize retention is the reported-unclaimed count divided by the number originally listed for that tier. It describes a dated share, not current odds, expected value, or purchase advice.
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Why reported prizes cannot calculate current scratch-off odds
Direct answer: ScratchSignal cannot know official current next-ticket odds. The Texas prize report does not show how many tickets remain unsold or whether a prize reported unclaimed is on an unsold ticket. Prize retention only compares a prize's reported-unclaimed count with the number originally listed. It is not odds, expected value, or purchase advice. When every extra input is available, ScratchSignal can show a separate model estimate with its main assumption in plain view. That estimate is still not official current odds.
Official-source validation completed on October 16, 2026. Next source check due by October 19, 2026. Report a correction.
Starting odds and current odds are different questions
An official Texas game-details page explains its published overall odds using the production prize structure. ScratchSignal does not recalculate or replace that figure. A current next-ticket calculation would additionally need the number of unsold tickets and knowledge of which reported-unclaimed prizes remain on those unsold tickets; the reported-prize CSV does not provide either fact.
What prize retention measures
Prize retention = reported unclaimed prizes ÷ prizes originally listed in that tier. A retention gap subtracts the exact ticket-price prize tier's reported-unclaimed share from the top-prize tier's reported-unclaimed share. It describes two source-reported shares, not probability, expected value, profitability, payback, or an edge.
Worked example: Winning 7s #2124
The official report lists 3 top prizes reported unclaimed out of 21 originally listed, and 27,747 exact $1 prize-tier prizes reported unclaimed out of 142,200 originally listed.
Limit: a positive, negative, or zero gap does not say which ticket will win, whether a prize is on an unsold ticket, or whether one game is a better purchase. Open the complete game report.
How to interpret a reported change
A change in the retention gap compares two reports we checked. It does not mean actual winning odds or profitability improved. ScratchSignal does not rank a game as “best,” “hot,” or “due” from this count comparison.
Common questions
Can remaining-prize reports show how many tickets are unsold?
No. They report prize-tier counts, not the number or identity of unsold tickets.
Can ScratchSignal calculate current odds from those reports alone?
No. Texas does not publish the number of unsold tickets or say whether a reported-unclaimed prize is still on an unsold ticket.
Which scratch-off has the best current odds?
ScratchSignal cannot identify which game has the best current odds. Its proprietary model can compare estimated ticket frequency for one selected outcome among same-price games. The first modeled result is not the best ticket or official current odds. The official Texas page remains the source for published overall odds.